Twelve years ago, at a time when those hopes still burned bright, a dissenting China expert named Minxin Pei published an arresting argument. Not only would the Chinese Communist Party never willingly liberalize, he argued, but rather than permit liberalization, the party would eventually smother China’s economic growth too. I read China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy shortly after it was first published. Pei and I have kept in touch over the years since. Pei now serves as the director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont-McKenna College. 12年前に私は中国専門家の碩学であるMinxin Peiにインタビューした。彼は当時から 中国共産党が民主化・開放化することは有り得ず、経済発展を促進するにせよ政治的 に本質は変わらないと言っていた。
On March 2, I spoke with Pei via Google Doc to inquire how it felt to deliver one of modern political science’s most powerful and resounding “I told you so”s.
David Frum: A decade ago, you broke ranks with almost all conventional China expertise and predicted that the People’s Republic would not successfully transition toward true economic and political freedom. Why were so many people so wrong? These were knowledgeable and intelligent people. What misled them so badly? 0826日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 00:17:20.98ID:1v6q1+Ei 貴方は10年前に多くの中国専門家とは異なって有国が経済的政治的に開放化される 事はないと断言しました。多くの人々は、何故、誤ったのでしょう?
Minxin Pei: I would say many people were too dazzled by the superficial changes, especially economic changes, to realize that the Communist Party’s objective is to stay in power, not to reform itself out of existence. Economic reform or, to be more exact, adopting some capitalist practices and embracing market in some areas, is only a means to a political end. In fact, Deng Xiaoping made it crystal clear when he started the reform, but unfortunately many observers, including China-watchers, failed to read him correctly. They have made other mistakes as well. For example, they overlooked the nature of the Chinese regime. It is not your garden-variety dictatorship, but a successor to a totalitarian regime. It is both far more ruthless and determined to protect its power than an average dictatorship and far more capable of doing so. 中国共産党の目的は権力維持であり、経済発展や市場の改革は手段以上の意味を持たな いのです。ケ小平はその事について明確であったのですが多くの人は正しく理解するこ とが出来なかった。中国の独裁政権というのは全体主義の次の段階に来るものであって 権力の維持において普通の独裁政権に比べて遥かに有能なのです。(後略) 0827日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 00:43:51.91ID:1v6q1+Eihttps://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO27787160W8A300C1EA2000/?nf=1 北朝鮮の非核化、裏切りの歴史 2018/3/6 23:30
Gary Cohn, President Trump's top economic adviser, is going to leave the administration in the coming weeks. The New York Times, which was first to report the news, says "no single reason" is prompting Cohn to quit but the decision comes after the struggle inside the White House over tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
Trump has cancelled a meeting with companies that use steel and aluminum that Cohn was arranging.
Why it matters: There will probably never be a “globalist” in Trump’s West Wing who has Cohn’s heft, and there are now zero powerful West Wing voices willing to spend all their political capital to persuade the president to kill these tariffs. この事件の意味:これでホワイトハウスからグローバリストが一掃される。トランプ関税 への反対派がなくなる
The backstory on his departure: Cohn disagreed with Trump on just about every issue besides tax cuts ? he was, and is, a Democrat. But Trump respected him and listened to him.
Cohn would tell Trump he was wrong, arguing with him and in front of him. In the early days, the hottest trade fights devolved into shouting matches between Cohn and Trump’s nationalist trade adviser Peter Navarro. Cohn has called Navarro a liar to his face, in front of other staff. 0837日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 08:46:05.40ID:1v6q1+Ei Still, throughout all this, Trump continued to listen to Cohn because he's rich and, in Trump's words, a “total killer” who had “done it all on Wall Street.” He also listened because Cohn didn’t care and acted that way. Colleagues have told me they thought Cohn behaved throughout like he thought he was in charge. He thought he had a plan to stop Trump from putting massive tariffs on steel and aluminum, but Trump effectively told him to shove it. 0838日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 08:50:36.40ID:1v6q1+Ei>>836 修正 グレイ・コーン → ゲイリー・コーン 0839日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 08:53:26.25ID:1v6q1+Eihttps://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2018-03-06/P56XXK6JIJUO01 コーン米NEC委員長が辞任−輸入関税論議の中 Mike Dorning 2018年3月7日 7:54 JST 更新日時 2018年3月7日 8:25 JST
そういったドライな分析のほうがトランプにはよほど効きそうだけど 0842日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 09:04:04.20ID:1v6q1+Ei 7:00p UPDATED Dow futures fall 360 points on news of Cohn's resignation from Trump's White House コーン辞任で米国株式先物が急落、ダウ先物は−360ポイント
DJIA F 24,499 -353 -1.42% S&P F 2,694.00 -30.00 -1.10% NASDAQ F 6,828.25 -79.50 -1.15% 0843日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 09:07:07.06ID:1v6q1+Ei Ezra Klein認証済みアカウント @ezraklein 10分10分前 What's telling here is that Cohn's deputy, Jeremy Katz, left in December. Usually the #2's wait out the #1's so they can become the #1's. But this White House isn't building its bench. It's losing its bench even faster than it's losing its principals. 0844日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 09:13:40.00ID:1v6q1+Eihttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/u-s-said-to-consider-broad-curbs-on-chinese-imports-takeovers U.S. Considers Broad Curbs on Chinese Imports, Takeovers 2018年3月7日 8:00 JST Updated on 2018年3月7日 8:29 JST 米国政府は中国からの輸入や米国企業の買収に広範な規制政策検討
The Trump administration is considering clamping down on Chinese investments in the U.S. and imposing tariffs on a broad range of its imports to punish Beijing for its alleged theft of intellectual property, according to people familiar with the matter.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s office last year began investigating China’s IP practices under a seldom-used trade law that gives President Donald Trump powers to impose trade restrictions to protect American commerce from unfair trading actions by foreign nations. An announcement about the investigation is anticipated in the coming weeks.
The move would escalate tensions already running hot over Trump’s plan to impose stiff tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, risking retaliation from allies and major trading partners like China and rankling Republican lawmakers over the economic costs. Trump struck a defiant tone this week, tweeting that he’d welcome a trade war. In a blow to the free-trade wing of Trump’s team, White House chief economic adviser Gary Cohn announced on Tuesday he is resigning. The dollar fell and an exchange-traded fund linked to U.S. stocks tumbled in after-hours trading.(ry 0845日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 09:19:47.31ID:1v6q1+Ei Keith Boykin認証済みアカウント @keithboykin Trump Administration Departures: ?Gary Cohn ?Hope Hicks ?Rob Porter ?Omarosa ?Tom Price ?Seb Gorka ?Steve Bannon ?Scaramucci ?Reince Priebus ?Sean Spicer ?Mike Dubke ?James Comey ?Andrew McCabe ?Michael Flynn ?Dina Powell ?Sally Yates ?Preet Bharara ? and more 0846日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 09:33:27.64ID:1v6q1+Ei>>722、723 <コーン補佐官辞任なら反グローバル化のサイン>
<米トリプル安転落「見極め」のポイント>
現局面は楽観シナリオに踏みとどまるか、米トリプル安のシナリオに転落するかの瀬 戸際とさえ言えるかもしれない。見極めのポイントは、1)近日中とされる大統領の 「トランプ関税」への調印までに、どれだけ例外規定や期間の縮小が盛り込まれるか、 2)巨大経済圏であるEUがどのような報復措置を打ち出すか、3)より中期的な政 策の方向性を占う上では、コーン経済担当補佐官が勢力を保てるか、といったところ である。 0847日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 09:50:34.40ID:1v6q1+Ei Financial Times認証済みアカウント @FinancialTimes 8 分8 分前 Cohn resignation could prove a new departure for markets 0848日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 09:52:49.20ID:8ZcO2fxB 中国の鉄鋼はどこかが手を付けないといけなかった話であるからなあ。 0849日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 09:55:14.95ID:1v6q1+Ei Haidi Lun ?海迪認証済みアカウント @HaidiLun Hot on the heels of Gary Cohn resigning *U.S. SAID TO CONSIDER BROAD CURBS ON CHINESE IMPORTS, TAKEOVERS; WEIGHING TARIFFS, RECIPROCITY WITH CHINESE INVESTMENT
Eternal Emperor Balding@BaldingsWorld 2時間2時間前 Eternal Emperor BaldingさんがHaidi Lun ?海迪をリツイートしました Sigh 0850日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 09:59:14.33ID:1v6q1+Ei 7:30p UPDATED Stock market, dollar rattled after Gary Cohn resigns from Trump White House 7:15p UPDATED Dow futures fall about 400 points on news of Cohn's resignation from Trump's White House 0851日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 10:10:56.74ID:XH8PaYtj 国内500大企業の41%「上半期の大卒新卒採用計画はない」 http://m.news.naver.com/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=102&oid=001&aid=0009927736
これに対し、中国の当局者は関税実施なら世界の貿易システムが悪影響を受けると指摘 し、中国政府が大豆など米国からの輸入品への規制を検討していると警告した。 また、中国製品への広範な関税賦課はウォルマートやターゲットなど米小売企業からの 反発も招きかねない。小売業界は昨年、議会共和党指導部が提案した輸入品に対する国 境税導入の阻止で成功を収めた。 原題:U.S. Said to Weigh Broad Curbs on Chinese Imports, Takeovers (1)(抜粋) 0854日出づる処の名無し2018/03/07(水) 11:02:20.51ID:1v6q1+Ei Kaitlan Collins認証済みアカウント @kaitlancollins News: President Trump met with John Bolton in the Oval Office today.
David Frum認証済みアカウント @davidfrum David FrumさんがKaitlan Collinsをリツイートしました It’s spiraling