0657日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 13:36:53.06ID:a5i6xPOD>>656 Nate Silver@NateSilver538・20分 Not really anything earth-shattering here. The +7 in PA will help Biden in our averages (though ABC/Post had it +9 before) and the -2 in FL will hurt him (though ABC had Biden down by 4 in FL before). 引用ツイート
Key points: The New Federal State of China is a self-proclaimed pro-democracy group headed by Steve Bannon and billionaire Guo Wengui 郭文貴とスチーブ・バノンの率いる自称プロ・デモクラシー・グループ「The New Federal State of China」
An Australian whistleblower is speaking out about how the group spreads misinformation and conspiracy theories online このグループは陰謀論や偽情報をオンラインで拡散するためのものと告発者
After leaving the group, he has been threatened by Mr Guo and his followers in Australia 彼はグループを離れたあと、郭文貴とその一派に脅かされている
Their "whistleblowers' movement", rebranded this year by the duo as The New Federal State of China, soon became the centre of Hunter Biden's laptop scandal. ハンター・バイデンのラップトップ・スキャンダルはこのThe New Federal State of Chinaの偽情報
The unverified videos and photos they posted allegedly showing Hunter Biden "engaging in sex and drug acts" have been watched by tens of millions of viewers, although most mainstream US media have not reported the allegations because the source and substance of the material could not be verified. Former core members told the ABC the group is "very, very dangerous to any country", and the misinformation it recklessly spreads will seriously harm democracy. 0662日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 17:01:08.05ID:a5i6xPOD "[Guo's media] is spreading misinformation. I think it's trying to interrupt the United State elections," said John Pan, a former core member of the group, speaking out for the first time. 以下に郭文貴の背景やこの事件の関わりの説明があるけれど省略 0663日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 17:07:42.96ID:a5i6xPOD One of the group's most successful campaigns popularised discredited claims by a virologist who said COVID-19 was deliberately manufactured in a Chinese lab. このグループの拡散に成功した偽情報の一つは COVID-19が中国の研究所で作られたというもの
More recently, FirstDraft's researchers found that Mr Guo's supporter's post about the Hunter Biden scandal from late September is the first traceable mention of the now-viral rumours. 最近の発信の偽情報がハンター・バイデンのスキャンダル
In the following weeks, Guo's websites have been flooding the internet with the Hunter Biden rumours. 選挙当日に向けて、ネットに偽情報を多量に流している
"The timing of this just weeks out from the election at a crucial time in the US [election] campaign, shows that this has been planned and there's been some coordination here to do maximum damage against the Biden campaign," Dr Kruger said. 0664日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 17:13:11.75ID:a5i6xPOD>>661 流石に一流メディアや大手メディアは裏取り検証とかするので、郭文貴のプロパガンダ 程度には騙されないのだけれど、ネットのブロガーやタブロイドその他が・・・ 0665日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 17:28:11.39ID:a5i6xPOD 中山 俊宏 NAKAYAMA Toshihiro@tnak0214・4時間 まさにこれですね。 ?The Daily:Apple Podcast内のThe Field: The Shy Biden Voters Among Florida’s Seniors ?podcasts.apple.com
Tee@TeeKinoTakayuki ・ 4時間 概ね同意の内容。隠れトランプは2016年に比べれば圧倒的に少なく、むしろ民主党基盤の州で さえ目立つのはトランプのヤードサイン。しかし、バイデンのヤードサインが目立たないのは 「バイデンを支持しているわけではないから」であって、今回はむしろ「隠れ反トランプ」と 言える状況と個人的には分析。 twitter.com/tnak0214/statu… https://twitter.com/5chan_nel (5ch newer account) 0666日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 17:30:12.77ID:a5i6xPOD 中山 俊宏 NAKAYAMA Toshihiroさんがリツイート tetsuo kotani/小谷哲男@tetsuo_kotani・8時間 昨日の台湾国家安全保障会議で、蔡英文総統はアメリカとの関係は共和・民主問わずに 強化すること、中国とは対等な立場で対話を呼びかけることを指示した。米大統領選の 行方を懸念していることがうかがえる。 0667日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 17:55:08.21ID:a5i6xPOD Paul Krugman@paulkrugman Next week is going to be horrible, for multiple reasons. One reason I haven't seen mentioned much in the media has come up a lot in my discussions with Wall Street types: the personal desperation of the Trumpies if he loses 1/
Trump himself, of course, faces likely financial ruin from his unpayable debts and perhaps criminal charges if he loses the shield of office. Quite a few officials will probably also face criminal charges for abuse of office, both political and financial 2/
But there's another, more mundane issue facing many lower-level Trump minions: they may not get the traditional soft landing available to former officials, in which you move into a cushy lobbying or industry job 3/
Normally service in government is a plus on your resume; serving this government, not so much. For one thing, everyone knows that the Trumpies aren't the A team, or even the B team; they're people who had nothing better to do 4/
What about K Street? The usual connections won't count for much: Democrats control the House. If they take the Senate too, they will play hardball, giving McConnell very little chance to shape legislation ? and anyway, it's obvious that MM personally despises Trump and co 5/
So if you are, say, Trump's Deputy Assistant Secretary for small endangered mammals, who's going to offer you a job? You pretty much burned your bridges by joining this administration, and that has jammed the revolving door. 6/
And if you're tempted to mock my mixed metaphor, all I can say is that if Biden wins, the upper hand will be on the other foot 7/ 0668日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 17:55:30.49ID:a5i6xPOD What all this means is that we're going to be looking at some very desperate people, many willing to do extreme things to pull this out 8/ 0669日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 19:07:45.22ID:vIS7NdYn 421:↓| `u' |ピザ屋@偉い人専用:20/11/01(日)13:25:16 ID:KO.za.L1 WSJが勝負がついたと言っちゃったよw
Joseph R. Biden Jr. holds a clear advantage over President Trump across four of the most important presidential swing states, a new poll shows, bolstered by the support of voters who did not participate in the 2016 election and who now appear to be turning out in large numbers to cast their ballots, mainly for the Democrat. 0671日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 20:33:24.76ID:eYOYZUfn CNNがこんな寄稿載せちゃうってのも何やら雲行きが怪しいと思う訳ですが 果たして氏の予想通りバイデン圧勝の未来は訪れるのでしょうか?
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/trump-biden-election-richard-fowler Richard Fowler: Americans are tired of Trump’s lies, incompetence, ignorance and failures Millions of Americans are over Trump’s mismanagement and it’s time to let him know Richard Fowler By Richard Fowler | Fox News
Nate Silver@NateSilver538・10月31日 Quick thread. Warning: not super exciting. 1. In the course of our reporting on Trafalgar Group?part of the due diligence we often do while entering polls?we've learned that some of their polling was done for partisan clients that weren't clearly disclosed. この後説明が続くが省略 0677日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 21:03:55.68ID:eYOYZUfn ペンシルベニアと言えばそこで暮らしてるアーミッシュってドイツ系移民の宗教集団がトランプ支持って話らしいね TwitterでAmishって単語で検索したら#AmishForTrumpってタグまであったわ トランプってのは随分と小規模な移民からも支持される差別主義者なんですね_____________ ちなみに大体人工は20万人ぐらいらしい 0678日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 21:11:59.28ID:CGioS12L>>671 バイデンなんて当選した瞬間に用済みなんだし改めてカマラが何をやりそうか見て戸惑ってるんじゃね? 0679日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 21:32:54.23ID:a5i6xPOD Paul Krugman@paulkrugman・39分 The final stages of the Trump campaign have involved a lot of flailing. He tried running against imaginary anarchist hordes; when that didn't work, he tried running against Hunter Biden's laptop; now he's running against evil doctors 1/ トランプ選挙キャンペーンの最終ステージ:始めはアナーキストの群れ、上手くうけ ないので次にハンター・バイデンのラップトップ、次には悪徳な医者への攻撃・・
Doctors used to be very Republican. Back in 1961 the American Medical Association urged doctors' wives (hey, it was 1961) to bring their friends over to hear Ronald Reagan denounce Medicare 3/ 医者は伝統的には強い共和党支持だった
Also, medicine isn't and can't be an ordinary business. Doctors are required to swear some version of the Hippocratic Oath, and while they may not always be saints, we do expect and often get a higher ethical standard than from many other professions 5/ 医者はそもそも、普通のビジネスではなくて、高いエシカルスタンダードが要求される
Which brings us to the modern GOP: hostile to science and expertise of all kinds, exalting the profit motive, accusing anyone claiming to stand for higher principles other than religious faith of "political correctness". Trump isn't an outlier; he fits right in 7/ 0680日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 21:33:31.56ID:a5i6xPOD Oh, and I should mention that there's a remarkable association between modern conservatism and the hawking of quack nutritional supplements 8/ https://brickhousenutrition.com/pages/benshapiro
So Trump's war on modern medicine isn't just a convenient excuse for his pandemic failure. It's another battle in the right's long war on rationality and those who defend it 9/ 0681日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 21:40:54.38ID:a5i6xPOD Nate Silver@NateSilver538・12分 How the NYT/Siena polls affected our averages:
AZ: They have Biden +6. Our average goes from +3.2 to +3.4 FL: They have Biden +3. Our average goes from +1.7 to +1.8. PA: They have Biden +6. Our average stays at +4.9. WI: They have Biden +11. Our average goes from +8.2 to +8.7. 0682日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 21:57:03.66ID:Kknt7L9U 北朝鮮・中国のミサイル迎撃を想定、政府が新型イージス艦を検討・・・ https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/20201101-OYT1T50016/
じゃあ、北風政策(子供を作れるのに作らない女性に刑罰を科す)しか無いな。 それが嫌なら、移民受け入れ政策の画期的促進だよ。 ま、かなり将来になれば、国による精子と卵子の強制採取と人工子宮での 赤ちゃん「生産」が始まり、人類滅亡は避けられるだろうが・・。 0691日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 23:51:12.61ID:a5i6xPODhttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/biden-leads-trump-10-points-final-pre-election-nbc-news-n1245667 Biden leads Trump by 10 points in final pre-election NBC News/WSJ poll The Democratic nominee leads President Trump 52 percent to 42 percent nationally. Nov. 1, 2020, 11:00 PM JST By Mark Murray NBC‐News/WSJ選挙前最終の世論調査:全米平均でバイデンvsトランプは52−42で、バイデンが 10ポイントのリード “This is the 11th survey we’ve done in 2020, and so little has changed,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. 最近の世論調査結果は安定的で、大きな変化が起きていない 0692日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 08:39:06.99ID:1TfZ2Cethttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-battleground-poll-idUSKBN27H1PO NOVEMBER 2, 2020 4:38 AMUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO Days before U.S. election, Biden's lead widens in Rust Belt: Reuters/Ipsos poll By Chris Kahn 選挙前最終のReuters/Ipsos世論調査;ラストベルトでバイデンのリードが拡大
バイデンvsトランプ(LV)
ミシガン州:52%−42%(先週は52%-43%)
ウイスコンシン州:53%-43%(先週は53%-44%)
ペンシルバニア州:51%-44% (先週は50%-45%)
フロリダ州:49%-47%(先週は50%-46%)
アリゾナ州:48%-46%(先週は49%-46%)
ノーズカロライナ州:49%-48%(先週は49%-46%) 0693日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 08:43:39.73ID:1TfZ2Cet Nate Silver@NateSilver538・4時間 This is basically what you get if you only use high-quality polls instead of (as 538 does) using all polls but weighting high quality polls more heavily. About 1 point better for Biden on average. 引用ツイート
Ryan Struyk@ryanstruyk ・ 4時間 Latest CNN poll averages in battlegrounds:
コロナより、、、そこ https://twitter.com/osakatokosono/status/1322944828401876992 https://twitter.com/5chan_nel (5ch newer account) 0703日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 14:51:04.72ID:1TfZ2Cet The Economist@TheEconomist・4時間 “Trump doesn't have a philosophy. He doesn't follow a grand strategy...He's not a conservative. That's not to say he's a liberal...For him, everything is transactional.” @AmbJohnBolton talks to @AnneMcElvoy on “The Economist Asks” podcast 0704日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 15:00:21.40ID:1TfZ2Cet *雑誌エコノミスト、ハンター・バイデン「疑惑」について
The Economist@TheEconomist・6時間 Donald Trump’s camp alleges that Joe Biden perverted American foreign policy to benefit his son and Burisma. The opposite appears true トランプ陣営はバイデンが、息子とBurisma社の利益のために、米国の外交政策を 歪めたと主張するが、それは真実ではない。
To work, dumps of hacked email need a juicy target and credulous institutions. This one had neither economist.com 0705日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 15:13:38.09ID:1TfZ2Cet Kazuto Suzuki@KS_1013・4時間 投票日直前になって陰謀論を全面的に採用するトランプ大統領。だんだんやけくそになっている感じ。 引用ツイート
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump ・ 11時間 Biden is a proven Castro puppet! Vote TRUMP バイデンはカストロの操り人形である! 0706日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 15:55:21.24ID:jlH1yJNF>>705 何か根拠があるのか、ただの思いつきなのか 0707日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 16:21:28.55ID:MO19EELL 陰謀論を全面的に採用する外電とメインストリーム・メディア。だんだんやけくそになっている感じ。 0708日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 16:27:39.33ID:MO19EELL CNN「ドナルド・トランプ大統領は2期目を迎えるに値する」 https://www.cnn.co.jp/usa/35161779.html バイデンの大犯罪が明らかになってFBIも捜査中だからついにCNN裏切ったか 0709日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 16:34:24.48ID:qeN5SHwO>>708 >記事の内容はジェニングス氏個人の見解です。 0710日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 16:58:45.63ID:1TfZ2Cet Zeke Miller@ZekeJMiller・2時間 Responding to "Fire Fauci" chant from audience in Florida, Trump tells supporters, “Don’t tell anybody, but let me wait until a little bit after the election." 0711日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 17:04:06.73ID:1TfZ2Cethttps://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2020-11-01/QJ4I45DWRGG001 バイデン氏優勢、全国と激戦州でトランプ氏をリード−最新調査 Marissa Horn、Deana Kjuka 2020年11月2日 3:07 JST 更新日時 2020年11月2日 9:15 JST ●ABC・Wポスト調査ではフロリダ州でトランプ氏がリード ●オハイオ、アイオワ、テキサス、Nカロライナで互角−エマーソン大 0712日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 17:08:02.55ID:1TfZ2Cethttps://www.afpbb.com/articles/-/3313260 米コロナ対策、至急変更を ファウチ氏警告 2020年11月2日 5:58 発信地:ニューヨーク/米国 [ 米国 北米 ]
われわれは4年前に「ドナルド・トランプ氏がもたらすものは政治的混乱だ」と書いた。 そしてトランプ政権は、善かれあしかれ、まさにそれをもたらした。同氏の政策と従来 の慣例からの脱却は、必要とされていた多くの事柄を実現させた。しかし分断を助長す るような統治手法と、人格上の問題点は、今回の選挙での敗北につながる恐れがある。 対抗馬である民主党のジョー・バイデン候補の選挙キャンペーンのテーマは突き詰める と「私はドナルド・トランプではない」というものだ(ry 0715日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 17:21:52.28ID:1TfZ2Cet Financial Timesさんがリツイート Tony Tassell@TonyTassell・1時間 it is all about Pennsylvania - @FT Big Read here by @Dimi on the state of play in the key election battleground
Trump’s last gamble: proving the pollsters wrong in Pennsylvania Both candidates will spend the final day of campaigning in a state that they believe holds the key to election victory ft.com 0716日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 17:29:18.90ID:MO19EELL>>709 そういう記事を載せる時点でCNNの意向を反映している 嫌ならそもそもそういう記事を掲載しないからね 0717日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 18:24:16.58ID:1TfZ2Cethttps://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO65746520S0A101C2FFE000/ ファーウェイ、半導体の生産ライン新設か FT報道 2020/11/2 15:54
High likely turnoutの場合:バイデンvsトランプ=51−44 Low likely turnoutの場合:バイデンvsトランプ=50−45
Biden leads Trump by a 51% to 44% margin among likely Pennsylvania voters in a high turnout model+. The race stands at 50% Biden to 45% Trump in a low turnout scenario ? which at this point would basically mean a large number of mail ballots have been rejected. Among all registered voters, 50% support Biden and 45% back Trump while another 1% support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 4% are undecided or won’t reveal their vote choice. The undecided number is up slightly from 2% last month. 0731日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 23:13:12.13ID:1TfZ2Cet>>730 記事中に説明されているように、今回の選挙では多量の郵送投票があり、場合によっては その中の一部は有効にされないことが懸念されているので「Low likely turnoutの場合」 というシナリオでの計算がされている 0732日出づる処の名無し2020/11/02(月) 23:13:41.62ID:mY9dngDl 韓国京畿知事、日本新聞とのインタビュー「私は日本に敵対的でない」・・・ 李知事は「慎み深く、隣人に配慮する日本人の姿は美しい。しかし、日本の 一部政治家は軍国主義、膨張主義的な思考を持っている」と・・・した。・・・ https://japanese.joins.com/JArticle/271819
[1日 ロイター] - 米スタンフォード大学の経済学者らは今週末にインターネットに投稿 した論文で、トランプ大統領がこれまで開いた選挙集会が新型コロナウイルスの新規感染者を 3万人増やし、700人以上を死亡させた公算が大きいとの試算を示した。 同大のダグラス・バーンハイム経済学部長が、6月20日から9月22日までの計18回の集 会(うち3回は屋内)のデータを分析。統計モデルを用いてこうした推測をしたと明らかにし ている。 感染症の専門家は長い間、トランプ氏の集会が感染の大規模拡大を引き起こす「スーパースプ レッダー・イベント」ではないかとの疑念を抱いてきた。ただ今のところ、多くの州で確固と した接触追跡ができないこともあり、具体的な影響をうまく読み取ることができていない。 0736日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 00:02:46.42ID:t083dhJ1 ロイター@ReutersJapan・3時間 コラム:米金融界が戦々恐々、「上院勢力逆転」の未来図 0737日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 04:22:02.11ID:t083dhJ1https://www.wsj.com/articles/swing-state-poll-finds-no-late-shift-in-presidential-race-11604329351?mod=djemalertNEWS Swing State Poll Finds No Late Shift in Presidential Race In 2016 election, many pollsters missed 11th-hour shift among undecided voters toward Trump By Andrew Restuccia Nov. 2, 2020 10:02 am ET 激戦区の選挙前最終の世論調査をみると、4年前とは異なって、今回はシフトは起こっていない; 2016年には、多くの世論調査機関が最後の最後で起こった、態度未決定者のトランプへのシフト を見逃したのだが
WASHINGTON?Support for President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden in a group of battleground states has remained unchanged in recent days, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, finding little evidence of the kind of last-minute shift toward Mr. Trump that helped him win four years ago.
The poll, conducted on Sunday in 12 states in which the election is most competitive, finds Mr. Biden leading, 51% to 46%, essentially unchanged from a survey late last week.
The new survey underscored an important difference between Mr. Trump’s first campaign for the White House and his re-election fight this year. After watching Mr. Trump for four years, voter opinions of the president have been set for months, and the race appears to have little of the late volatility that marked the 2016 election.
“We set out to find whether or not we could look for late breaks to any candidate, and instead what we found is a pretty stable structure of how this election looks in our polling,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democrat Jeff Horwitt. 0738日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 04:49:00.03ID:t083dhJ1https://www.marketwatch.com/story/final-morning-consult-poll-shows-biden-with-8-point-national-lead-and-solid-advantage-in-florida-and-pennsylvania-2020-11-02?mod=home-page Final Morning Consult poll shows Biden with 8-point national lead and solid advantage in Florida and Pennsylvania Published: Nov. 2, 2020 at 5:36 a.m. ET By Steve Goldstein Morning Consultの選挙前最終世論調査:バイデンは全米平均で+8、フロリダで+6、 ペンシルバニアで+9ポイントのリード
The last pre-election poll from Morning Consult, which is conducting over 4,000 daily surveys of likely voters, shows former Vice President Joe Biden with an 8-point national lead over President Donald Trump, and Biden leading in the key swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania. Only 3% of likely voters say they don't know who they are backing. In Florida, Biden leads by 6 percentage points, and in Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 9. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YM00, 1.26% were up over 300 points. 0739日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 05:12:18.24ID:t083dhJ1https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO65746140S0A101C2000000/ [FT]ポーランド、中絶禁止の抗議で教会に矛先 2020/11/2 15:18 Financial Times
特にクリーンルーム絡みは多そう 0746日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 10:49:11.96ID:HUZj2X37>>743 LSI の国産化は china が躍起になってやってきたが、出来ていない。 幹部が投資の大部分をポケットに入れてしまうから。 今度も無理じゃない? china はパンツもはけない暮らしに戻るんだよ。 0747日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 11:36:07.58ID:t083dhJ1https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/2020-election-polls-biden-leads-trump-in-six-swing-states.html Biden narrowly leads Trump in six swing states before Election Day, poll shows PUBLISHED MON, NOV 2 20207:15 PM ESTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO Jacob Pramuk @JACOBPRAMUK CNBC/Change Researchの選挙前最終世論調査
上院議員選挙の注目選挙区(グラフ) https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106774668-1604344295404-20201102_cnbc_change_research_senate.png?v=1604344323&w=630&h=512 (Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority) 0748日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 11:51:47.86ID:t083dhJ1 FT Opinion@ftopinion・14時間 Gideon Rachman: Democracy can fail anywhere, even in America. Some senior Republicans have begun to say out loud that the survival of the values and system they cherish is more important than democracy itself. 0749日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 12:26:32.28ID:QA+FXJuO>>744-746 色々教えてくれて感謝です。 なるほどねえ、まともな方法なら国産化に20〜30年はかかりそう。 これからはパクるのも簡単には出来ないだろうし。 0750日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 13:22:17.61ID:t083dhJ1 Will Jordan@williamjordann ・ 43分 the RCP average for PA now entirely excludes this weekend's 1800 interview NYT/Siena poll, for some reason. (Trafalgar finished fieldwork the same day or earlier and is included, along with Insider Advantage and Susquehanna, two other GOP-aligned pollsters) 0751日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 13:27:02.77ID:t083dhJ1https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO65788980T01C20A1000000/ 投票目前の米、コロナ感染が最多8万人 激戦州で急増 2020/11/3 6:23 (2020/11/3 8:19更新)日本経済新聞 電子版
CSISの超親日家のマイケル・グリーン氏でさえバイデン支持だからな 0753日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 16:20:35.44ID:t083dhJ1 Nate Silver@NateSilver538・47分 Trump beating his polls by 3 points results in a tenuous win for Biden, on the other hand. This is a winning map for Biden?he has the cushion to withstand a 2016-style polling error?but might be tough for Democrats to hold the Senate and this race could take a long time to call.
Nate Silver@NateSilver538・1時間 At the end here, our model defaults to a very "polls-only" forecast. So here's our version of a "no tossups" map based on final polling average in each state. Very unlikely that all of these turn out right as NC, ME-2, GA, OH, IA, TX all within 2 points. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323510475473231873/photo/1 https://twitter.com/5chan_nel (5ch newer account) 0756日出づる処の名無し2020/11/03(火) 16:34:48.11ID:t083dhJ1 Nate Silver@NateSilver538・1時間 Final joint probabilities:
72%: DEM trifecta ホワイトハウスと上下院が民主党支配 17%: Biden + GOP Senate + DEM House バイデン勝利、上院は共和党支配 6%: Trump + GOP Senate + DEM House トランプ勝利、上院は共和党支配 3%: Trump + DEM Senate + DEM House トランプ勝利、上院は民主党支配 2%: GOP trifecta ホワイトハウスと上下院が共和党支配