0555日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 20:54:24.31ID:NRzrUO7/ The Economist@TheEconomist・2時間 Joe Biden will not end the bitter animosity that has been mounting for decades in America. But he could begin to lay out a path towards reconciliation. The former vice-president gets our endorsement 0556日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 20:54:34.11ID:evokSmQ2>>539 13兆円真水の金注入するなら何らかの効果はあるかと 昔の定額減税もちゃんと景気の下支えになってたからな ただリーマンショック以上の恐慌下にあるんだから貯蓄に回りやすいかもしれない しかしそもそも経済対策なのか？ 非常事態宣言で国全体が一時的に活動が制限されるからこの金で凌げって意味合いだったと思っていたんだが 0557日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 20:55:14.39ID:o06gcjRL …そして１週間後、このスレには 「この選挙は不当」「共和党の不正が発覚した」 「激戦区のこの州で共和党がとるのは明らかにおかしい」 などの記事がガンガンアップされる 0558日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 21:00:06.48ID:ECulHUnF 森喜朗氏、鈴木大地氏出馬に反対 千葉知事選、擁立困難・・・ https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/542ef6e23af619d1bb50a83bc121efa03c4ccea5
The Economist@TheEconomist・4時間 What do Maine, Arizona and North Carolina have in common? Our election model thinks a Senate seat in each state is likely to switch from red to blue メイン、アリゾナ、ノースカロライナで共和党議席が民主党に移ると予想
予想議席数・民主党＝52.3 seats 予想議席数・共和党＝47.7 seats 0560日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 21:03:02.67ID:CtSySLVh>>556 たったの10万円ぽっちじゃ大多数は何も凌げない 国民の多くは既に決まっていた支払いに回すか、この金が無くてもいずれ買ったであろうものにしか充てない つまり経済効果上は実に無意味で、大規模感染症の脅威に当てられた国民のヒステリーを多少宥める程度の効果しか無い 0561日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 21:04:48.60ID:evokSmQ2 一時的に無収入になる人などへのコロナ対策の支援策だったと思うのだが 低所得者のみの配布にすると必要な人にも行き渡らない 苦しくとも自分だけもらうことを恥と考える人たちはかなり多い 0562日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 21:06:30.03ID:NRzrUO7/https://www.vox.com/21538653/poll-biden-trump-texas-university-dallas?scrolla=5eb6d68b7fedc32c19ef33b4 Exclusive: Biden leads Trump by 12 points in a national UT Dallas poll The survey also finds that more stimulus is respondents’ top priority for a new Congress. By Li Zhou and Christina Animashaun Oct 29, 2020, 7:00am EDT テキサス大ダラス校の世論調査で、全米平均でバイデンがトランプを12ポイントのリード 0563日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 21:11:04.95ID:evokSmQ2 麻生が経済対策だと言い出したのは物凄い違和感があった まぁもうそろそろ引退だろうから批判はしないが 0564日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 21:13:04.76ID:CtSySLVh>>561 そんな人らに10万ぽっち与えてもしょうがない
あと、追加の給付金はよとか書いたのは悪手だったんじゃない？ 給付金に味をしめたように見えて厭らしいぜ？ ついでにコロコロID変えるのも褒められたもんじゃない 0581日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 23:18:26.28ID:kzWZN2Vx>>580 言いたいことはわかるが賛同はできん あとIDは意識して変えてるわけじゃないのでどうにもならんのよ、すまんね 0582日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 23:19:08.26ID:nu4i7OhE 図星刺されてて草 とはいえは補填してくれるならして欲しいわな、俺もなー 0583日出づる処の名無し2020/10/29(木) 23:56:10.54ID:o06gcjRL 渡邉哲也 「簡単に言うと、バイデンさんをイメージすると日本の政治家で一番近いのが村山富市さん」 「副大統領候補のカマラ・ハリスが辻元清美さん」 福島香織 「ええ！そんなん誰が投票するんですか？ｗｗ」 0584日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 02:24:24.56ID:QdTZTVpM Nate Silver@NateSilver538・11分 Highly similar to the Marist poll this AM. Florida's been gyrating between "toss-up" and "lean Biden" and this last round of polling is putting it more in the latter category. フロリダ州の選挙前最終の世論調査：午前中に公表されたMarist世論調査と同様な傾向 の、Monmouth大学の世論調査。フロリダ州は「競合・未定」と「バイデン側に傾斜」の間 で揺れ動いているが、この調査では「バイデン側に傾斜」に向かう傾向を示している
Among all registered voters in Florida, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 45% for Trump. Another 1% support Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian), less than 1% back Howie Hawkins (Green), and 2% are undecided. In different likely voter models+, the race stands at 51% for Biden and 45% for Trump in a high turnout scenario and 50% to 46% with lower turnout. Biden’s current lead is nearly identical to the likely voter model results in last month’s Monmouth poll. The last two presidential elections in Florida were decided by a single percentage point. 0585日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 02:37:01.14ID:QdTZTVpM>>584 Marist世論調査 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/poll-biden-holds-narrow-lead-florida-n1245190 Poll: Biden holds narrow lead in Florida Biden gets 51 percent to Trump's 47 percent in a new NBC News/Marist poll, an edge within the poll's margin of error. ct. 29, 2020, 6:00 PM JST By Mark Murray
WASHINGTON ? Joe Biden holds a slight 4-point lead over President Donald Trump in the battleground of Florida, fueled by his standing among seniors and independents, according to the final NBC News/Marist poll of the state before Tuesday's presidential election. 0586日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 03:29:34.94ID:QdTZTVpM Todd Eberly@ToddEberly・ 6時間 Generic ballot: Closing days of 2016 v 2020. One of these things is not like the other. 選挙前最終週の支持率動向：2016 v 2020 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElfpvhwWkAAUMFe?format=jpg&;name=360x360 傾向は全く異なっている 0587日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 03:37:43.50ID:QdTZTVpM Nate Silver@NateSilver538・31分 Quinnipiac:
Nate Silver@NateSilver538・41分 It really doesn't feel like we're gonna get much change in the polling averages between now and election day. The one potential (and important) exception is Pennsylvania, which it seems like a lot of major pollsters are holding out as the final state they'll poll. 今から選挙当日までに世論調査の支持率に大きな変化が起こるようには見えない。ただし 唯一の可能な例外はペンシルバニア州で、主要な世論調査機関の多くが最終調査の結果公 表を控えている 0593日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 10:24:16.46ID:QdTZTVpM FiveThirtyEight@FiveThirtyEight・33分 Trump won white Catholics handily in 2016, but there are signs that his support from this group is slipping. That’s doubly worrisome for the president because white Christians are declining as a share of the voting population overall. 2016年にトランプはクリスチャンの支持を固めて当選したが、この層のトランプ支持は 揺らいでいる。クリスチャン層が有権者全体に占める比率は低下傾向でもあり、トランプ にとっては二重に心配すべきことである
The nation’s F-5 fighters would all be decommissioned by 2026, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Wang Ting-yu (王定宇) wrote on Facebook yesterday, after an F-5E crashed into the sea north of Taitung County’s Chihhang Air Base yesterday morning, killing its pilot. -- Washington last year agreed to sell Taiwan 66 F-16Vs, with the first two fighters scheduled to be delivered in 2023, military sources said 0596日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 11:58:29.49ID:QdTZTVpMhttps://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO65597970Z21C20A0000000/ [FT]インド、海洋でも対中強硬に傾斜 2020/10/29 17:00日本経済新聞 電子版 Financial Times
Kyle Griffin@kylegriffin1 ・ 5時間 NBC Exclusive: The Hunter Biden 'dossier' that went viral on right-wing internet sites and was later disseminated by Trump's close associates appears to be from a fake 'intelligence firm'. The author of the report, 'Martin Aspen', does not exist.
https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-third-u-s-india-22-ministerial-dialogue/#.X5sv-YP3_f4.twitter Joint Statement on the Third U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue - United States Department of State The text of the following statement was released by the Governments of the United States of America and India on the occasion of the third U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. Begin text: India’s... 0611日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 13:14:33.58ID:QdTZTVpM Nate Silver@NateSilver538・47分 The race is not tightening if you use any sort of robust methodology or look at the better polling. The tightening is almost entirely confined to a group of 3 or 4 pollsters that release a lot of polls and so can dominate polling averages that don't adjust for house effects, etc. まともな世論調査機関のデータを見る限り大統領選終盤の支持率の差の縮小は起こっていない
＊538は世論調査機関の信用格付けを行っていて↓のサイトの表示を見ればわかる https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ 例えば C Harris Poll A Suffolk University C+ Rasmussen Reports B Public Policy Polling A+ Monmouth University D- SurveyMonkey 0612日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 13:20:25.01ID:QdTZTVpM Paul Krugmanさんがリツイート Dave Wasserman@Redistrict・8時間 Five days from Election Day, it's clear who's the favorite. And it's not Donald Trump. 引用ツイート
Dave Wasserman@Redistrict ・ 2016年11月4日 Five days from Election Day, it's clear who has the momentum. And it's not Hillary Clinton. This thing is close. 0613日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 14:51:16.89ID:/fc34uj9 Glenn Greenwaldって言うジャーナリストが自分が共同創刊したThe Interceptっていうニュースサイトを辞任した 辞任理由は「ハンターバイデンの報道に対する検閲を受けたから」 https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1321869227226222593
日本の米中移行戦略は、台中にバレバレ。 0630日出づる処の名無し2020/10/30(金) 22:06:08.90ID:rHtoGFxf 英帝国主義評価はまだまだ、イギリスでも旧英領植民地でも甘いな。 Is it time to strike back at empire?・・・
英リベラルは目を瞑ってたんじゃあなくって、連中も収奪の共犯者なんだよ。 Philosophers, political thinkers and authors of the 18th and 19th centuries who criticised aspects of British imperialism, including Edmund Burke, Lord Byron and John Stuart Mill, may have thought they were defending decency and the rule of law - but in practice they condoned inequality, exploitation and authoritarianism, she writes. “The liberals screwed their eyes shut and put their fingers in their ears, muttering ‘progress’,” she says.・・・
帝国主義時代の日本を自分ら側に分類しちまってどうすんのよ。 一体、だれが、アジア主義をアジア全域に広げたと思ってんのさ。 ・・・political liberalism and social reform in western Europe formed a stark contrast to the repressive methods of rule employed in the British, Dutch, French - and Japanese - colonies of Asia. Harper, a Cambridge historian, makes the intriguing point that as imperialism fostered globalisation, drawing together Aden, Alexandria and Bombay with Calcutta, Hong Kong, Penang and Singapore, so this same process allowed Asia’s anti-colonial activists to establish connections with each other. There was an internationalist spirit among the revolutionaries that found expression, for example, in the fact that Shanghai was an early centre of Esperanto, the language in which much anarchist literature was distributed across south-east Asia.・・・ https://www.ft.com/content/2387b16b-44ff-4cda-80be-e4ce9e4d2dd20631日出づる処の名無し2020/10/31(土) 06:20:41.07ID:7IwQ+H1r Nate Silver@NateSilver538・35分 This was a fairly weird day for polling with a lot of volume but relatively few high-prestige polls ... but it's hard to find anything much with a favorable trendline for Trump.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/0632日出づる処の名無し2020/10/31(土) 06:25:15.13ID:7IwQ+H1r Financial Times@FinancialTimes・48分 There are doubts that Republicans can continue to accommodate a ‘pro-expertise’ corporate cadre alongside its ‘rural, anti-intellectual conspiracy group’ for much longer
Trump’s corporate trouble: CEOs keep their distance from the party of business The tension between companies and the populist president could develop into a long-term headache for Republican party ft.com 0633日出づる処の名無し2020/10/31(土) 06:47:40.11ID:7IwQ+H1r Paul Krugman@paulkrugman・1時間 This is remarkably vile. It's also politically stupid, isn't it? 引用ツイート
Dr. Deborah Birx warned the nation's governors on Friday of a "broad surge" of the COVID-19 pandemic across the country as the weather cools, contradicting President Trump's claim that the U.S. is "rounding the turn."
Birx, the White House Coronavirus Task Force coordinator, said on a call that nearly one-third of the nation is in a COVID-19 hot spot, and things aren't getting any better as people turn to indoor activities.
"This is a broad surge across every state where it is cooling," Birx said in audio of the call obtained by CBS News. "... We're learning from the far north about how dramatic that spread can be, and we do not see yet improvements in Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota or Wisconsin."
The pandemic will only plateau if "every single person in your states" takes wearing masks, social distancing and hygiene seriously, Birx said, according to audio of the call. She told governors that people must decrease indoor gatherings with family and friends. The goal is to "form a bridge of human behavior change over the next few weeks," she said. 0636日出づる処の名無し2020/10/31(土) 10:35:24.33ID:7IwQ+H1r Nate Silver@NateSilver538・1時間 A COVID record four days before the election is not an October surprise in the sense that things have been trending badly and it was quite predictable. But the more that COVID has been at the forefront of people's concerns, the worse Trump has tended to do. COVID感染拡大は予め予想されていてそう云う工合に悪くなったいるので、オクトーバー・ サプライズではないが、人々のパンデミックへの関心の高まりは、トランプにとって都合が悪い
The COVID Tracking Project@COVID19Tracking ・ 2時間 Our daily update is published. States reported a new record number of cases?97k?and 1.4 million tests. Currently, 47k people are hospitalized. There were 933 COVID-19 deaths reported. 感染者は97kで新記録、現在入院しているのは47k、死亡者933人 （グラフ） https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElnO0jqVkAEuPpH?format=jpg&;name=small 0637日出づる処の名無し2020/10/31(土) 15:29:02.30ID:7IwQ+H1rhttps://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO65601070Z21C20A0000000/ 韓国で「5G」離れ 56万人がLTE回帰 ソウル支局長 鈴木壮太郎 2020/10/30 0:00 (2020/10/31 0:03更新)日本経済新聞 電子版
ベットフェアのアナリスト、ポール・クリシュナムルティ氏も、バイデン氏が３３０票以上 を獲得して圧勝すると予想した。(ry 0641日出づる処の名無し2020/10/31(土) 21:23:50.23ID:7IwQ+H1rhttps://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trumps-inner-circle-braces-for-2020-campaign-disaster Trump’s Inner Circle Braces for Disaster BRACE FOR IMPACT Some still believe a win is possible. But others are wrapping their head around a Biden presidency and regretting the money they gave to Trump. Asawin Suebsaeng White House Reporter Lachlan Markay Reporter Updated Oct. 31, 2020 2:53AM ET / Published Oct. 30, 2020 8:14PM ET トランプのインナー・サークルは選挙惨敗に備えて身構える
With just a few days left before Election Night and the president trailing in numerous state and national polls, Donald Trump’s inner circle is increasingly whispering the same thought: Our guy blew it.
A forecast of a Biden White House is not one they welcome. But it’s one many of them have come to finally accept after a year of coronavirus deaths, economic devastation, and racial and civil unrest have throttled an administration run by a man they believe has failed to rise to the occasion, even on just a purely messaging front.
“I believe the betting markets, which say there’s a 60 percent chance that Biden wins, and a 40 percent chance that Trump does,” Stephen Moore, a conservative economist who advises President Trump on economic and COVID-19-related matters, said in an interview Thursday.
Out of the 16 knowledgeable and well-positioned sources across Trumpworld?campaign aides, Republican donors, senior administration officials, and close associates of the president and his family?whom The Daily Beast interviewed for this story in the week leading up to Election Day 2020, only five gave Trump comfortable odds at winning. Doug Deason, a high-dollar Trump donor from Dallas, pegged Trump’s odds at “75 percent or better,” for instance. 0642日出づる処の名無し2020/10/31(土) 21:24:24.35ID:7IwQ+H1r Six others were confident, to varying degrees, that President Trump would be relegated to one-termer status. The remaining five gave him roughly 50/50 odds. Of those five, two?a White House official and a friend of the president’s?started sounding increasingly pessimistic as the conversation went on.（ry 0643日出づる処の名無し2020/10/31(土) 23:15:24.64ID:IZoGGJod 中国「隠れ」漁船 信号消して違法操業 日本や台湾、韓国EEZで https://www.epochtimes.jp/p/2020/10/63993.html0644日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 00:01:35.13ID:WGCuZhZ2 相変わらずバカにはハンターがFBIの捜査を受けてる事すら知らないんだな バカだから仕方ないな 0645日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 04:31:48.71ID:sENP4doK 雑誌エコノミスト、大統領選予測 https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president バイデン＝350 トランプ＝188
Madame Tussauds in Berlin dumps Trump before U.S. election The waxwork museum Madame Tussauds in Berlin loaded its effigy of TV star-turned Republican president Donald Trump into a dumpster on Friday, a move apparently intended to reflect its expectations of... reuters.com 0650日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 04:58:51.81ID:sENP4doKhttps://jp.wsj.com/articles/SB11802105269447434285004587066813937152968 バイデン政権入りへ虎視眈々 早くも売り込み殺到 縁起を担ぐバイデン氏は選挙前の人事案の策定避ける By Eliza Collins, Andrew Restuccia and Ken Thomas 2020 年 10 月 30 日 04:36 JST
【ワシントン】米民主党のジョー・バイデン大統領候補の周辺には目下、電話やメール、 テキストが殺到している。投票日が間近に迫る中、バイデン政権の誕生をにらみ、主要 ポストへの「売り込み」が本格化しているためだ。 0651日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 09:58:21.52ID:a5i6xPOD ペンシルバニア最近の世論調査 President: general election Pa. OCT 23-28, 2020 A+ Muhlenberg College Biden +5 OCT 28-29, 2020 B Public Policy Polling* Biden +7 OCT 16-29, 2020 D- SurveyMonkey Biden +6 OCT 23-26, 2020 D- Swayable Biden +6 OCT 24-25, 2020 C- Trafalgar Group* Trump +1 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/0652日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 10:08:09.07ID:a5i6xPOD Nate Silver@NateSilver538・10分 We've gotten a lot of data, most of it very recent. 91 million people have already voted. There's no October surprise unless you want to count the latest COVID spike, which isn't good news for Trump. Trump can win but there's not much indication of a last-minute surge toward him. 0653日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 10:12:48.82ID:a5i6xPOD Nate Cohn@Nate_Cohn・3時間 New CNN/SSRS polls show Biden ahead in four battleground state polls MI Biden+12, 53-41 AZ Biden+4, 50-46 WI Biden+8, 52-44 NC Biden+6, 51-45 0654日出づる処の名無し2020/11/01(日) 10:16:22.01ID:a5i6xPOD Charles Franklin@PollsAndVotes・10月30日 In my @MULawPoll yesterday 7% were "undecided or declined to answer". Most of those were early voters declining to answer. But "allocate" them by fav/unfav to Biden or Trump and they split equally, bring us to 50% Biden 45% Trump 2% Jorgensen & 2 still unknown.
