https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/trump-coronavirus-model-207582 How overly optimistic modeling distorted Trump team’s coronavirus response Administration latched onto projections from respected University of Washington site, but reality turned out to be more dire. By ADAM CANCRYN 04/24/2020 07:26 PM EDT
As coronavirus cases climbed daily by the thousands and the nation entered its second month of an economic standstill, President Donald Trump latched onto a sign of hope: A pandemic model closely followed by political leaders and public health specialists projected the virus would kill as few as 60,000 Americans, a figure far below what officials previously feared.
The new April forecast signaled the worst would soon be over, with some states effectively ending their bout with coronavirus as early as the end of the month. According to the model’s bell-shaped curves, hospitalizations and deaths nationwide were set to drop off nearly as quickly as they rose.
Trump swiftly adopted the projection from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation as his newest measure of success ? while top administration health officials including infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci and coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx touted the lower figure as a clear indication the U.S. was winning its fight with the disease.
“It looks like we’ll be at about a 60,000 mark, which is 40,000 less than the lowest number thought of,” Trump said during a news briefing on Sunday, April 19, adding the next day that “the low number was supposed to be 100,000 people. We could end up at 50 to 60.” 0386日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 14:07:49.00ID:Qs57iEgd That’s not going to happen. More than 50,000 Americans are dead from the coronavirus already, following several days during which the nation’s death toll routinely topped 2,000. The U.S. is now expected to blow past the 60,000 mark around the beginning of May, earlier than the IHME model had projected and with less of the dramatic leveling-off that its forecast had initially baked in.
“You can’t oversell the models, and you have to view them within the correct context,” said Jeffrey Shaman, a coauthor of Columbia University’s coronavirus model, who warned of the difficulty in making projections based “on a highly fluid situation for which the information is woefully incomplete.”
That’s particularly the case with the IHME model, a projection that’s risen to prominence in recent weeks as the White House’s favored reference point. The model is not the type of fringe source that has sometimes captured Trump’s attention ? rather, it’s an academically credible analysis funded in part by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. In retrospect, public health experts said, the sudden downward shift in IHME’s numbers that gave the Trump administration, governors and some health professionals the confidence to float reopening the country by summer was also a prime example of the model’s inherent limitations ? and the risk of relying on any model to accurately predict how a virus that scientists are still scrambling to understand will behave in the real world.
“The IHME model is an odd duck in the pool of mathematical models,” said Gregg Gonsalves, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Medicine. “I fear the White House is looking for data that tells them a story they want to hear, and so they look to the model with the lowest projection of death.”（ry 0387日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 14:20:21.57ID:Qs57iEgd>>381 https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2020-04-25/Q9BN54T0G1KW01 「消毒剤」「漂白剤」がコロナ関連ツイートでトップ－米大統領発言後 Kartikay Mehrotra 2020年4月25日 11:56 JST ●コロナ治療法として消毒剤を体内に注入したらどうかと発言 ●トランプ氏は「皮肉」の発言だったとその後釈明
An unusually high number of New Yorkers contacted city health authorities over fears that they had ingested bleach or other household cleaners in the 18 hours that followed President Trump’s bogus claim that injecting such products could cure coronavirus, the Daily News has learned. The Poison Control Center, a subagency of the city’s Health Department, managed a total of 30 cases of possible exposure to disinfectants between 9 p.m. Thursday and 3 p.m. Friday, a spokesman said. None of the people who reached out died or required hospitalization, the spokesman said. But compared to last year, the number of cases was worthy of a double-take.（ry 0388日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 15:03:11.91ID:Qs57iEgdhttps://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/36409 営業続けるパチンコ店に客大勢 都の休業要請対象 2020年4月25日 土曜 午後12:25
＊歴史的に言って、特亜諸国やロシアは火事場泥棒体質・・・ 0396日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 20:42:37.97ID:Qs57iEgd Financial Times@FinancialTimes・4時間 Clashes break out in locked-down Paris suburbs as tensions rise Strict measures enforced during virus pandemic exacerbate entrenched inequalities, say experts ロックダウン中のパリ郊外で、厳しい規制に反発してクラッシュ発生 0397日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 20:54:58.94ID:WVGm3GdB>>393 全世界の男が共感してると思う。 騒ぐのは的を獲ているからだろう。 男女の違いをいったまでで、差別では無かろうに。 0398日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 21:40:44.48ID:Qs57iEgdhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-24/pompeo-seeks-exceptions-to-who-funding-halt-for-seven-countries Pompeo Seeks Exceptions to WHO Funding Halt for Seven Countries By Nick Wadhams 2020年4月25日 5:34 JST ポンペオ国務長官はトランプ大統領のWHO資金供与停止について、途上国のポリオや 新コロナウイルス医療支援の例外（米国の資金供与）を求めている
●Afghanistan and Syria among nations singled out by Pompeo アフガニスタンやシリアなどの諸国へのWHO経由の医療資金供与 ●Trump ordered pause in funding to World Health Organization 先にトランプ大統領はWHOへの資金供与を停止
Secretary of State Michael Pompeo has recommended that the U.S. keep funding World Health Organization programs to fight polio and coronavirus in seven countries, a recognition that the group provides key services in some areas despite President Donald Trump’s criticism.
State Department officials informed the National Security Council that the WHO is central to the fight against Covid-19 or polio in seven countries: Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan, Sudan, Syria and Turkey, said a person familiar with the discussions. Adhering to the letter of Trump’s order from last week to halt all U.S. funding to WHO for a 60- to 90-day review would therefore be unworkable.
Five pledges were agreed on the call: この国際協力の5つの公約
●Provide access to new treatments, technologies and vaccines across the world. ●Commit to an unprecedented level of international partnership on research and coordinate efforts to tackle the pandemic and reduce infections. ●Reach collective decisions on responding to the pandemic, recognising that the virus’s spread in one country can affect all countries. ●Learn from experience and adapt the global response. ●Be accountable, to the most vulnerable communities and the whole world. 0400日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 22:10:03.73ID:Qs57iEgdhttps://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/22/coronavirus-dr-anthony-fauci-says-i-am-convinced-second-wave/3009131001/ 'Convinced': Fauci says there will be coronavirus in the fall after Trump says 'it may not come back' Savannah Behrmann USA TODAY トランプ大統領は新コロナウイルスの再来（第二波）は無いだろうというが国立アレルギー・ 感染症研究所所長のFauciは、第二波はあるだろうという
WASHINGTON ? Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, appeared to contradict President Donald Trump's notion that the coronavirus may not reappear for a second wave in the fall. "It may not come back at all," Trump said Wednesday during a White House briefing.
He discussed the return of COVID-19 after quibbling with a report that said CDC Director Robert Redfield warned of a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak in the fall that could be worse because it could coincide with the opening of the flu season.
The president claimed a comeback of coronavirus later in the year will not be "anything near what we went through," regarding the pandemic that is still ongoing. Trump's comments come as medical experts have warned the country may not return to normal life regarding social distancing until there is a vaccine. 0401日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 22:12:02.78ID:Qs57iEgd Fauci, a key member of the White House's Coronavirus Task Force, reiterated this Wednesday. "We will have coronavirus in the fall," he said. "I am convinced of that because of the degree of transmissibility that it has, the global nature. What happens with that will depend on how we’re able to contain it when it occurs." 0402日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 22:15:16.36ID:Qs57iEgdhttps://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2020-04-25/Q9BTZZT0AFB401 トランプ氏後押しの抗マラリア薬、心臓への悪影響をＦＤＡが警告 Robert Langreth、Riley Griffin、Michelle Cortez 2020年4月25日 15:26 JST
●心拍の異常を引き起こすリスクがあると米食品医薬品局 ●米ＮＩＨの専門家パネルも抗マラリア薬の併用療法は控えるよう勧告 0403日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 22:20:23.05ID:Qs57iEgdhttps://apnews.com/4f969401f33ff7dca33ee4e37e2aff2f Associated Press: White House could alter virus briefings to limit Trump role ? WASHINGTON (AP) ? For the first time, President Donald Trump cut off his daily coronavirus task force briefing on Friday without taking any questions from reporters. It may not be the last time. ホワイトハウスは（いろいろな問題発言の多い）トランプ大統領の新コロナウイルス対策 のディリー・ブリーフィングを制限しようと試みている 0404日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 22:22:51.60ID:Qs57iEgd J Sato@j_sato・47分 感染爆発すると医療崩壊して致死率CFRが上がって死者の急増すると思っている人が多い が、医療崩壊しようがしまいが致死率は変わらない。 人口あたり死亡率が高い国はすべて感染初期から致死率が一桁高い。 致死率CFRが急上昇した国は存在しない。 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWcxzHHVcAMv5jM?format=png&;name=small
そういうわけで男が女より買い物が早いことが普遍的な定理としては認められないのだ 正しくは、「男でも女でも買い物が早い奴は早い、トロイ奴はトロイ」って事にしておきたいので、 性別を理由にそういった能力差があるとは認められないし、認めてはならぬのだ …フェミニズム的には、だが 0408日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 23:46:16.28ID:Qs57iEgdhttps://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/24/gop-memo-anti-china-coronavirus-207244 GOP memo urges anti-China assault over coronavirus The Senate Republican campaign arm distributed the 57-page strategy document to candidates. By ALEX ISENSTADT 04/24/2020 04:41 PM EDT 共和党の上院評議会の配布した秋の選挙戦への戦略文書によれば、新コロナウイルス の渦中にあるので「アンチ・チャイナ」を掲げて戦う
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has sent campaigns a detailed, 57-page memo authored by a top Republican strategist advising GOP candidates to address the coronavirus crisis by aggressively attacking China. 新コロナウイルスの危機の選挙戦であるので、中国を激しく攻撃する戦略を使う
The memo includes advice on everything from how to tie Democratic candidates to the Chinese government to how to deal with accusations of racism. It stresses three main lines of assault: That China caused the virus “by covering it up,” that Democrats are “soft on China,” and that Republicans will “push for sanctions on China for its role in spreading this pandemic.” この戦略の論法は、①中国は隠蔽によりウイルスを拡散させた、②民主党は中国に甘い ③共和党は中国にパンデミックを起こさしめた責任を追求し制裁を求める
“Coronavirus was a Chinese hit-and-run followed by a cover-up that cost thousands of lives,” the April 17 memo states. The document urges candidates to stay relentlessly on message against the country when responding to any questions about the virus. When asked whether the spread of the coronavirus is Trump’s fault, candidates are advised to respond by pivoting to China. この文書は米国内の新コロナウイルス感染拡大についてトランプ政権の落度はなく中国に攻撃 を向けるようにと示している “Don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban ? attack China,” the memo states. 「トランプ政権の弁護をするな、中国を攻撃せよ」 0409日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 23:46:58.48ID:Qs57iEgd The GOP’s planned China-focused assault, however, is complicated by Trump’s occasional praise for President Xi Jinping. The liberal organization American Bridge recently launched a commercial which plays a clip of the president praising Xi and declares that Trump “gave China his trust.” 0410日出づる処の名無し2020/04/25(土) 23:57:28.06ID:Qs57iEgd ﾂﾙﾐﾛﾎﾞ@kaztsu・13時間 秋葉原、コトブキヤがある裏通り。タピオカのお店がマスクを売りはじめるという話は本当だった https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWabwP7UEAEPL2D?format=jpg&;name=360x360 0411日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 00:21:48.10ID:b3MnLno8https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2cg-nhW_AA （続報）金正恩の救助失敗か？！（2020.4.25）李相哲TV 0412日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 00:42:55.15ID:8WcaroOa>>411 さしあたって一番心配なのは、今この瞬間核のスイッチを 誰が持っているか、だと思う。 それと、例の妹では体制維持は恐らく無理だと思うから、 これからかの国で何が起こるか・・・ 0413日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 01:41:09.76ID:y8y2Qf4Y 韓国単独北伐だろjk 0414日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 03:11:20.83ID:b3MnLno8 現時点では全くの憶測ですが、中朝国境に中国軍が集められて、万一の場合の難民などに 備えていると言っている向きがあるようです 0415日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 03:44:12.71ID:pD2vAdg0 今回はただの難民じゃなくコロナ持ち難民の可能性も高いからなぁ 0416日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 05:40:52.07ID:3btK20nJ 中国側だって感染地域じゃん 0417日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 06:46:38.14ID:b3MnLno8 ＊タブロイドのニューヨークポスト https://nypost.com/2020/04/25/north-korean-dictator-kim-jong-un-rumored-to-be-dead/ North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un rumored to be dead By Dana KennedyApril 25, 2020 | 12:36pm 北朝鮮の独裁者、金正恩死亡との噂
A vice director of HKSTV Hong Kong Satellite Television, a Beijing-backed broadcast network in Hong Kong, claimed that Kim was dead, citing a “very solid source.” Her post on the Chinese messaging app Weibo has been shared widely on social media, according to a report in the International Business Times.
The woman put the report on a social media app called Weibo for her nearly 15 million followers to read, citing a "very solid source" about the claim Kim had, in fact, perished.
The outlet reports -- citing a Chinese medical expert privy to the situation -- that Kim had clutched his chest in early April and fell down while visiting the countryside there. He needed a stent procedure done, but apparently ... it either wasn't done rapidly enough, or it was botched completely by the surgeon -- with some reports saying he had shaky hands.
Here's another point ... Saturday marks a major military anniversary in North Korea, where they celebrate the founding of the Korean People's Army in 1932 -- something they hype annually with a parade, and one in which Kim might normally make an appearance. International reporters on the ground say if Kim was doing alright and not on death's doorstep, he and his team would figure out a way for him to show up to squash the rumors. If he doesn't, it's probably not a good sign ... almost all but confirming something is wrong. 土曜日の軍の記念日に姿をみせなければ死亡の噂が・・ 0419日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 08:55:32.42ID:0+oFgcwI 緊急経済対策 事業規模としては110兆円だけど、真水分の国・自治体の支出は35.8兆円に抑えたのは評価できる ただでさえ借金大国の日本を借金超大国にしてはいけないからな 5/7の宣言解除に向けて 気合だー気合だー気合だー 0420日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 09:34:13.35ID:xYlTBiy4>>419 釣り？ 0421日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 10:28:51.75ID:bJaNk8aj>>419 too little だろーが 0422日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 10:48:34.75ID:b3MnLno8https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp/news_international/articles/000182514.html 中国の感染者数は発表の4倍以上…香港大チーム[2020/04/24 10:43]
This Japanese Island Lifted Its Coronavirus Lockdown Too Soon and Became a Warning to the World Hokkaido's story is a sobering reality check for leaders across the world as they consider easing coronavirus lockdowns https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/?xid=tcoshare
＞＞外国メディアの日本理解の乏しさはなんとかならないものだろうか…。
＊記者の資質に依るものなのでなんともなりません、かってはビル・エモットのような （エコノミスト誌の元編集長、元東京支局長）ジャーナリストもいたのですが 0433日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 14:11:57.83ID:pD2vAdg0 中国や韓国は権利なんて与えたら最後、資源枯渇絶滅するまでやりつくした挙句、自然汚染までして不毛になるまで毟られるぞ 0434日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 14:16:57.71ID:xYlTBiy4>>432 rolling stone gathers no moss.
引用ツイート World Health Organization (WHO)@WHO ・ 8時間 Earlier today we tweeted about a new WHO scientific brief on "immunity passports". The thread caused some concern & we would like to clarify: We expect that most people who are infected with #COVID19 will develop an antibody response that will provide some level of protection. 0444日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 15:39:54.64ID:vDvrZ4Uy>>442 あなた、何歳？ あと二十年後に破綻するならなぜ円は暴落しないの？ こんだけ必死こいてインフレ誘導してるのにダメなのはなぜ？ あー、そうか！せかいはにほんのしゃっきんにきがついてないんだね！ 0445日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 19:18:00.64ID:xYlTBiy4>>442 煽り方が未熟 0446日出づる処の名無し2020/04/26(日) 19:23:30.11ID:swm6tf6x サウジアラビア、むち打ち刑廃止 最高裁が声明 2020年04月25日19時49分 https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2020042500386&;g=int
