＊538の選挙予測、更新
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Biden is favored to win the election
UPDATED 9 MINUTES AGO

バイデンの勝利確率＝88%
トランプの勝利確率＝11%

＊以前より僅かにトランプの確率が減少

What should we make of that new Wisconsin poll that has Biden 17 points ahead?
Well, it’s an eye-popping lead that has improved Biden’s odds in our forecast
there, but it’s not the only good poll Biden has gotten in Wisconsin or in
other Midwestern states lately. He’s also gotten a number of strong results in
Michigan and even Iowa, where he now has a slightly better chance than Trump
of winning the state according to our forecast, although it’s still basically
a coin flip.
It’s a closer race in Pennsylvania though, as Biden only leads Trump by roughly
5 points in our polling average. Earlier this week, we gamed out what would
happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin.
Want to try out your own hypothetical and see what would happen? Well, now you
can! We’ve built an interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each
candidate could win.