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‘We’re watching an incumbent self-destruct’: Expert who predicted Trump’s 2016
victory has bad news for the president
Published 49 mins ago on October 27, 2020By Meaghan Ellis, AlterNet

Now, the polling guru who predicted Trump’s 2016 win is admitting that he, too,
is betting on a Biden win. During a recent interview, Dave Wasserman, a polling
expert who analyzes Congressional races polls via the non-partisan Cook Political
Report, has revealed just how difficult it will be for Trump to win the upcoming
election.

Wasserman outlined the differences between this election and the 2016 election that
awarded Trump his first term.
“There are a couple of important differences,” Wasserman said, adding, “At the
district level, the polling that we’re seeing is pretty consistent; it’s in line
with the national polls that suggest that Donald Trump is underperforming his 2016
margins [by] anywhere from 8 to 10 points, with few exceptions.”

He also noted important differences between Biden and former Democratic presidential
nominee Hillary Clinton.
Wasserman added, “There are a couple of exceptions: One is in really heavily
Hispanic districts. [These] are places where Donald Trump is approaching or even
exceeding his 2016 performance. But we also are seeing in really wealthy suburbs or
highly white-collar, professional suburbs?even in traditionally conservative metro
areas?that Joe Biden is doing 10 or more points better than Hillary Clinton did.”

The poll expert also explained how Biden’s polls fare differently from Clinton’s
polling in 2016. Wasserman compared the 2016 polls to the erratic diagrams you see
on an EKG. Unlike Clinton, who rarely maintained a consistent lead over Trump,
Wasserman notes that “Joe Biden has never been behind; he’s had a fairly stable
lead that’s ebbed around the margins.”