＊538のNate Silver、上院議員選挙の見通しについて

Nate Silver@NateSilver538・2時間
The 80% confidence interval now extends to 55 Democratic seats. While the modal
outcome remains a closely divided Senate, tail-risk scenarios are increasing for
the GOP.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EjmfdM8WAAESZ3b?format=jpg&;name=medium

民主党の過半数獲得の見通し、80% confidence interval で55議席までの可能性

Nate Silver@NateSilver538・2時間
Personally, I think there's an inflection point at 52 seats where Democrats
could tolerate defections from Manchin and one other random Democrat, and then
maybe another inflection point at 54 or 55 seats, which would enable far more
liberal/progressive/radical/etc. policies.

上院民主党議席が52までなら過激に左傾化した方向性が出ることはないだろうが54 or 55となれば・・