https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/19/biden-trump-polls-matchup-369261
Polls show Biden routing Trump. Here's how to read them.
A new survey from ABC News and the Washington Post is the latest high-quality poll
to show Biden with a double-digit lead.
By STEVEN SHEPARD　07/19/2020 07:00 AM EDT
各種世論調査でバイデンがトランプを凌駕する結果が出ているが、これを如何に
解釈すべきかの解説

President Donald Trump’s bad poll numbers are getting worse.
The latest data point: A new ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday shows
Trump 15 points behind former Vice President Joe Biden among registered voters,
55 percent to 40 percent.
トランプ大統領の世論調査結果は悪くなる一方で今は15％のギャップ

Putting Biden’s lead in perspective
バイデンのリードを歴史からみてみると
Only two challengers who led incumbents at this stage of the campaign ? John
Kerry in 2004 and Michael Dukakis in 1988 ? ended up losing, and each held a
smaller lead than Biden’s. (Dukakis would even pad his lead before losing it
completely, thanks to a convention bump that receded quickly in August).
過去の大統領選のこの時期に現職より挑戦者が優勢であって結果的に敗退したのは2例
あってジョン・ケリーとマイケル・デュカキスだが、両者ともリードの幅がバイデンに
比べて少ない

For a more recent comparison, Biden’s advantage well outstrips the lead Hillary
Clinton had at this point in the 2016 race, when she led Trump by 3 points in
the RealClearPolitics average. Clinton’s lead would briefly top out at an 8-point
lead in early August, and then again crest to 7 points in the immediate aftermath
of the “Access Hollywood” video in October.
ヒラリーの2016年のトランプに対するリードは3〜8％程度でバイデンの今より少ない