で、このキア・スターマーって人は、リーズ大で法学の学士、セント・エドモンド・ホールで 法学の修士、オックスフォード大で民法の学士を取り、その後、法廷弁護士に成っている。 ・・・He studied law at the University of Leeds and graduated with a first class Bachelor of Laws (LLB) degree in 1985. He then undertook postgraduate studies at St Edmund Hall, Oxford, and graduated from the University of Oxford with a Bachelor of Civil Law (BCL) degree in 1986. Starmer became a barrister in 1987. ・・・ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keir_Starmer
The killing of Suleimani, the long-time head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) is likely to prove a watershed in Washington’s relations with Iraq and Iran and will substantially affect the overall US position in the Middle East. The blowback may be huge, and much depends on how well prepared the United States is for Iran’s response and that of its many proxies in the Middle East.
Based on the Trump administration’s record in the region, there is reason to be worried.
It’s hard to overstate Suleimani’s influence. Because Iran’s conventional forces are weak, Tehran often works through militias, terrorist groups, and other proxies to advance its interests abroad. The IRGC takes the lead for many of these operations. In Iraq, and in other countries where Iran plays both a military and political role ? such as Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Afghanistan, as well as with the Palestinians ? the IRGC is often the dominant actor in Iran’s foreign policy, or at least an important voice.
With Suleimani’s death there will be hell to pay ? and because of Quds Force’s reach, Iran will have multiple theaters in which to attack the United States. （後略） 0542日出づる処の名無し2020/01/03(金) 15:53:34.64ID:0LkNv0Dy ＊外交評議会CFR代表のリチャード・ハース、イランの司令官(IRGC-QF)殺害の影響について
Richard N. Haass認証済みアカウント @RichardHaass 5時間5時間前 If reports of Suleimani killing true, we’d better be prepared for all sorts of Iranian retaliation against US diplomatic & military personnel around the region/world given his symbolic and actual role. Just when you thought the Middle East couldn’t get worse it well might.
Iran has been retaliating militarily to US eco pressure. Now it appears we may have added military pressure to the mix. We can expect Iranian attacks & possibly accelerated breakout from JCPOA. Absent has been any diplomatic initiative designed to moderate Iranian behavior.
It would be ironic and worse yet tragic as well as dangerous if an administration that wanted to reduce the US footprint in the Mideast has set in motion a dynamic that will draw us in much further at a time we face challenges from China and NK in Asia and Russia in Europe.
If US did have intell indicating Suleimani was planning imminent attacks on US personnel, preemptive action would have have been justifiable. But that is not the same as smart. It would have been preferable to try to deter Iran from going ahead given what we are now in for.
One sure result of the US strike is that the era of US-Iraq cooperation is over. The US diplomatic & mil presence will end b/c Iraq asks us to depart or our presence is just a target or both. The result will be greater Iranian influence, terrorism, and Iraqi infighting.
Financial Times認証済みアカウント @FinancialTimes 29分29分前 The FT View: The flight of Carlos Ghosn from an impending trial cannot be condoned 公判を前にしたカルロス・ゴーンの逃飛は容認し難い
Carlos Ghosn, the fallen head of the Nissan-Renault auto alliance, didn’t know much about making movies, but he seemed willing to learn. Sitting in his rented home in a wealthy Tokyo neighborhood one day in December, he walked John Lesher, a Hollywood producer behind the Oscar-winning 2014 Michael Keaton film, “Birdman,” through the plot of his own story, describing what he sees as his unjust imprisonment by Japanese officials and his struggle to prove his innocence, said people familiar with the discussions. The theme was redemption. The villain was the Japanese justice system. The talks were preliminary and did not get far, the people said. And in any case, Mr. Ghosn was preparing to deliver a shocking plot twist.・・・ https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/business/carlos-ghosn-movie.html
日本の治安当局は、この会社くらいは突き止めなよ。 0554日出づる処の名無し2020/01/03(金) 22:53:01.65ID:0LkNv0Dy Financial Times認証済みアカウント @FinancialTimes 1時間1時間前 The assassination of Qassem Soleimani has divided US political parties. Joe Biden said Donald Trump had thrown 'dynamite into a tinderbox' バイデン「イランのQassem Suleimaniの暗殺は、中東の火口箱にダイナマイトを 投げ込むような行為だ」 0555日出づる処の名無し2020/01/03(金) 23:04:56.31ID:O0Ebrgdt オリンパス元社長「日本の裁判、不公正」＝ゴーン被告を擁護・・・ https://news.livedoor.com/article/detail/17612247/
バカモンだねえ。こんなんを社長にしたオリンパスが嘆かわしい。
英エコノミスト誌の気が利いてたのは記事の見出しだけ。 やっぱ、日本の司法をバッシング。どいつもこいつもどーしょーもないね。 Fled to the Med-No one comes out of the Carlos Ghosn affair smelling of roses・・・ https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/01/02/no-one-comes-out-of-the-carlos-ghosn-affair-smelling-of-roses0556日出づる処の名無し2020/01/03(金) 23:06:47.40ID:0LkNv0Dy 舛添要一認証済みアカウント @MasuzoeYoichi 3 時間3 時間前 ソレイマニ司令官殺害は、アメリカによるイランへの「宣戦布告」とほとんど同じである。 ラーブ英外相は、関係各国がエスカレーションしないことを強く求めている。新年早々の この事態、2020年は中東戦争の年になるかもしれない。自衛隊を予定通り中東に派遣して よいのか。政府の見通しは甘すぎる。
Travel - State Dept認証済みアカウント @TravelGov #Iraq: Due to heightened tensions in Iraq and the region, we urge U.S. citizens to depart Iraq immediately. Due to Iranian-backed militia attacks at the U.S. Embassy compound, all consular operations are suspended. U.S. citizens should not approach the Embassy. イラク国内の米国国民は直ちに出国のこと。イラク内の米国大使館その他は閉鎖する。 危険を避けるため、国民は大使館に近づかぬこと
Paul Krugman認証済みアカウント @paulkrugman 1 時間1 時間前 But Pompeo just said we’ve made the world much safer でも先程、ポンペオ国務長官が、米国の措置で世界がより平和になったと言ったけどね 0558日出づる処の名無し2020/01/03(金) 23:26:15.11ID:0LkNv0Dy ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG)認証済みアカウント @anadoluagency 53分53分前 #BREAKING Turkey says it is obvious US airstrike will escalate mistrust, instability in region
（略） So the US has not merely killed an Iranian military commander but also a highly popular figure, viewed as a guardian of Iran even among secular-minded Iranians. And with the assassination of al-Muhandis, the Trump administration has put itself in the position of having killed the operational commander of a large branch of the Iraqi armed forces.
Some will characterise the deaths as a huge blow to Iran’s proxy capabilities and wider policy in the region. But such an approach ignores how the Iranian system is structured. （略） So what comes next? Predictably, the Iranian authorities have promised “severe retaliation”. How that unfolds in practice is anyone’s guess. There is certainly no shortage of US targets in the region. But Suleimani may, with his death, have already achieved the greatest revenge of all, and without firing a single bullet: namely, his ultimate objective of ending the US military presence in Iraq.
If he was indeed behind the attack on the US military base that ultimately precipitated his own assassination, then he has probably succeeded in trapping the US into initiating its own ejection from Iraq. So far, most Iraqi decision-makers, from the caretaker prime minister to the country’s highest spiritual authority, have condemned in no uncertain terms the violation of sovereignty that the assassination entailed. 0561日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 05:00:16.20ID:fktbHm3O As for Trump, he is stuck with the same problem he faced before Friday’s strike. The United States is no closer to the much-touted “new deal” with Iran, which the president boasted would eclipse that negotiated by his predecessor. Whatever remaining diplomatic off-ramps there were are rapidly crumbling.
Meanwhile, at a time when his unprecedented sanctions had stirred unrest inside Iran, the political elite has just been handed a rallying cry. The strike on Suleimani, whose status approached that of national icon, will harden popular sentiment against the US while simultaneously shoring up the regime.
For all his crowing about the decisive blow dealt to an insolent enemy, Trump may be about to discover that the problem with martyrs is that they live forever. （Mohammad Ali Shabani is a researcher at Soas University of London, where he focuses on Iranian foreign policy） 0562日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 07:34:08.23ID:fktbHm3Ohttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-oil-could-hit-80-even-without-a-full-blown-us-iran-war-2020-01-03 Why oil could hit $80 even without a ‘full-blown’ U.S.-Iran war Published: Jan 3, 2020 8:58 a.m. ET By STEVE GOLDSTEIN EUROPEAN MARKETS EDITOR 米国とイランの本格的戦争はなくとも、原油価格はバレルあたり80ドルになる可能性
Henry Rome, an analyst at Eurasia Group, expects Iran to retaliate for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani but stopped short of calling his death the next Franz Ferdinand.
“We expect moderate to low level clashes to last for at least a month and likely be confined to Iraq. Iranian-backed militias will attack U.S. bases and some U.S. soldiers will be killed; the U.S. will retaliate with strikes inside of Iraq,” he wrote in a note to clients. “Iran will also likely resume harassment of commercial shipping in the Gulf and may launch military exercises to temporarily disrupt shipping.” Another risk is an “asymmetric” response ? a euphemism for terrorism ? akin to the 1992 attack on an Argentine Jewish community center.
But Rome doesn’t expect a full-blown war, noting Tehran’s “healthy respect” for U.S. power and President Donald Trump’s aversion to war in the Middle East. Rome says oil prices could “make a run at $80” if the conflict spreads to the oil fields of southern Iraq or if Iranian harassment of shipping intensifies. Iraq is OPEC’s number-two producer, with more than double Iran’s output. 0563日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 12:43:29.10ID:fktbHm3Ohttps://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200104/k10012235171000.html 米軍がイラクでシーア派民兵組織を標的に攻撃 イラク メディア 2020年1月4日 11時52分
一方、アメリカ政府から発表はなく、詳しいことは明らかになっていません。 0564日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 13:01:01.47ID:fktbHm3O 米国イラン関係について、FFT社説 Financial Times認証済みアカウント @FinancialTimes 6時間6時間前 FT View: To reduce tensions with Iran, the US will need to boost diplomacy, co-operation with its allies and broader multilateral co-ordination. These are skills of which Donald Trump has shown little evidence 0565日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 16:22:36.42ID:vxG4dgwc イランに続いてイラクでも、て 3,000人派遣で足りるん？ 0566日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 20:19:58.59ID:gRnm6aZZ 米国、レバノンなど中東に空挺団３０００人派兵 予防的措置だから･･･ http://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1578128070/0567日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 20:42:18.81ID:fktbHm3Ohttps://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2020-01-02/Q3HQWKT0G1KW01 円の上昇で2020年スタート－昨年11月以来の高値に一時達する Vivien Lou Chen、Alyce Andres 2020年1月3日 5:07 JST
＞＞＞リスク回避が必要になる時期があり、それが円上昇を促す 0568日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 20:57:30.66ID:fktbHm3Ohttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/world/middleeast/trump-iran-suleimani.html NEWS ANALYSIS For Trump, a Risky Gamble to Deter Iran The goal was to prove American resolve in the face of Iranian attacks. Now, American officials have no doubt the Iranians will respond ? but they don’t know how quickly, or how furiously. By David E. Sanger Jan. 3, 2020
For a president who repeated his determination to withdraw from the caldron of the Middle East, the strike that killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, who for two decades has led Iran’s most fearsome and ruthless military unit, the Quds Force, means there will be no escape from the region for the rest of his presidency, whether that is one year or five. Mr. Trump has committed the United States to a conflict whose dimensions are unknowable, as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seeks vengeance.
“This is a massive walk up the escalation ladder,” wrote Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute. “With Suleimani dead, war is coming ? that seems certain, the only questions are where, in what form and when?” Bruce Riedel, the former C.I.A. officer who spent his life studying the Middle East, and is now at the Brookings Institution, said, “The administration is taking America into another war in the Middle East, bigger than ever.”
＊この記事を書いているDavid E. Sangerは米国の軍事外交分野の超ベテラン記者で政府組織内 にチャネルが太く特別の（名物）記者。この記事の伝える雰囲気はおそらく軍事外交組織に漂う ものを表していると思われ。つまり、サブタイトルのNow, American officials have no doubt 云々はそういうことを示唆 0569日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 21:01:46.75ID:TPD2NiWT ネットフリックス「ゴーン氏と契約ない」仏紙報道を否定・・・ https://news.livedoor.com/article/detail/17616872/
It is in part due to public war weariness that Republicans have sworn repeatedly, for years, that they would not go to war with Iran. The possibility of such a military escalation was precisely the central dispute between the parties when the Obama administration struck its nuclear deal.
And as Trump mulled following through on his threat to abrogate the deal, conservatives furiously denied that doing so would lead to military conflict. Here is former Israeli ambassador Michael Oren writing in the New York Times two years ago:
“The only alternative to the Iran nuclear deal is war.” That is what the Obama administration and proponents of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran claimed in 2015. Nobody in the Middle East believed that the United States would ever strike Iran, but enough Americans did that the deal went through. … The alternative was never war, but a better deal. 0571日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 21:12:04.82ID:fktbHm3O>>568 https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO54035300U0A100C2EA2000/ 米・イラン、報復連鎖も 「一線」見誤るおそれ 2020/1/4 12:52 (2020/1/4 20:24更新)
【ドバイ=岐部秀光、ワシントン=中村亮】米軍によるイラン革命防衛隊司令官の殺害は、 両国に深刻な報復の連鎖を招くおそれがある。イランの最高指導者ハメネイ師が「厳しい 報復」を予告したのを受けて、トランプ米政権は中東に米兵を増派する検討に入った。 対話のチャネルがない両国が「レッドライン（越えてはならない一線）」を互いに見誤り、 偶発的に衝突するリスクがくすぶる。 0572日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 21:19:36.45ID:fktbHm3O Karim Sadjadpour認証済みアカウント @ksadjadpour 18時間18時間前 10. As usual, Ayatollah Khamenei must careful calibrate his reaction. A weak response risks losing face, an excessive response risks losing his head. Khamenei is Trump's most consequential international adversary in 2020: 0573日出づる処の名無し2020/01/04(土) 21:31:57.06ID:TPD2NiWT トランプのソレイマーニー攻撃は、中東に於ける米国のゲームプランの、いつも通りの失敗である。 Opinion: Trump’s Suleimani strike is more of the same old losing U.S. game plan in the Mideast・・・ https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-01-03/qassem-suleimani-donald-trump-iran-drone-assassination
・・・on Friday when the Turkish private jet operator MNG Jet filled in a piece of the puzzle of Mr Ghosn’s escape. The company admitted that it supplied the Bombardier Global Express that took Mr Ghosn from Osaka to Istanbul and a second, smaller plane that took him from Istanbul to Beirut. But the firm, which has filed a criminal complaint against those allegedly involved in “illegal use of its jet charter services”, claimed that a staffer had arranged the two flights without the knowledge of senior management.・・・
People briefed on Mr Ghosn’s activities said it was likely that he used former US military officials to smuggle himself out of Japan, an expensive operation that could potentially cost him several million dollars. “It’s a complete mystery how he got the money,” says one person close to Nissan. Even including a $17m pay package in 2017-18, investments he made in real estate and other assets, people close to Nissan say it was still inconceivable he would have so much cash at hand to pull off the operation to flee Japan.・・・ https://www.ft.com/content/8e837de6-2e1f-11ea-bc77-65e4aa6155510576日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 02:07:32.43ID:OgBvPvNN イラクの米大使館 砲撃をうける 0577日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 03:07:42.75ID:OgBvPvNN 【速報】イラクで米大使館と米軍基地がミサイル攻撃受ける 負傷者５名 スレイマニ司令官殺害の報復か★2 https://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1578160389/0578日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 03:57:32.06ID:k89NKQdl 正月三が日明けてイラクへの攻撃 そして今日は報復 新年早々なんだこの動き いい加減にしてくれよ… 0579日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 05:20:24.10ID:jJRcOD7Khttps://www.pri.org/stories/2020-01-03/gen-petraeus-qasem-soleimani-s-killing-its-impossible-overstate-significance Gen. Petraeus on Qasem Soleimani’s killing: 'It's impossible to overstate the significance' January 03, 2020 ・ 4:15 PM EST By The World staff （退役陸軍大将で元CIA長官の）ペトラエウス、イランのソレイマーニー暗殺について 「いくら事件の重大さを強調しても、し過ぎということはない」
●Would you have recommended this course of action right now? I'd hesitate to answer that just because I am not privy to the intelligence that was the foundation for the decision, which clearly was, as was announced, this was a defensive action, that Soleimani was going into the country to presumably approve further attacks. Without really being in the inner circle on that, I think it's very difficult to either second-guess or to even think through what the recommendation might have been.
Again, it is impossible to overstate the significance of this action. This is much more substantial than the killing of Osama bin Laden. It's even more substantial than the killing of Baghdadi.
●Final question, General Petraeus, how vulnerable are US military and civilian personnel in the Middle East right now as a result of what happened last night? Well, my understanding is that we have significantly shored up our air defenses, our air assets, our ground defenses and so forth. There's been the movement of a lot of forces into the region in months, not just in the past days. So there's been a very substantial augmentation of our defensive capabilities and also our offensive capabilities. 0580日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 05:20:53.87ID:jJRcOD7K And, you know, the question Iran has to ask itself is, "Where does this end?" If they now retaliate in a significant way ? and considering how vulnerable their infrastructure and forces are at a time when their economy is in dismal shape because of the sanctions. So Iran is not in a position of strength, although it clearly has many, many options available to it, as I mentioned, not just with their armed forces and the Revolutionary Guards Corps, but also with these Quds Force-supported proxy elements throughout the region in the world.
●Two short questions for what's next, Gen. Petraeus ? US remaining in Iraq, and war with Iran. What's your best guess? Well, I think one of the questions is, "What will the diplomatic ramifications of this be?" And again, there have been celebrations in some places in Iraq at the loss of Qasem Soleimani. So, again, there's no tears being shed in certain parts of the country. And one has to ask what happens in the wake of the killing of the individual who had a veto, virtually, over the leadership of Iraq. What transpires now depends on the calculations of all these different elements. And certainly the US, I would assume, is considering diplomatic initiatives as well, reaching out and saying, "Okay. Does that send a sufficient message of our seriousness? Now, would you like to return to the table?" Or does Iran accelerate the nuclear program, which would, of course, precipitate something further from the United States? Very likely. So lots of calculations here. And I think we're still very early in the deliberations on all the different ramifications of this very significant action. 0581日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 07:38:03.47ID:jJRcOD7Khttps://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO53925810X21C19A2M10400/ 米中の対立、デカップリングから純化路線へ 秋田 浩之 本社コメンテーター 2020/1/5 5:00日本経済新聞 電子版
長い目でみると、世界のデジタル網やハイテクは、米中が主導する勢力圏に割れていくの ではないか。米国が優位とは限らない。次世代通信規格「5G」の争いでは、米国の敗色が 濃い。中国はAI（人工知能）も急速に進化させており、中華ハイテク圏がこの地域を覆う ことも絵空事ではないだろう。そうなれば、アジアの秩序も左右される。 0584日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 08:20:33.59ID:jJRcOD7K Financial Times認証済みアカウント @FinancialTimes 11時間11時間前 Iran draws parallels with Soleimani assassination and 1953 coup 0585日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 11:54:53.94ID:jJRcOD7K Donald J. Trump認証済みアカウント @realDonaldTrump 4 時間4 時間前 Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader who had just killed an American, & badly wounded many others, not to mention all of the people he had killed over his lifetime, including recently....
....hundreds of Iranian protesters. He was already attacking our Embassy, and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Iran has been nothing but problems for many years. Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have.....
....targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats! 0586日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 12:04:16.94ID:jJRcOD7K>>585 https://www.sankei.com/world/news/200105/wor2001050005-n1.html イラン、核開発拡大へ 対米報復、軍事力行使も 代理攻撃、暗殺も選択肢 狭まる外交解決の道 2020.1.5 08:46 国際中東・アフリカ
それと、これらの件と去年のホワイト国除外は関連あるんだろうなあ、 となんとなく思ってる。 0594日出づる処の名無し2020/01/05(日) 18:11:16.05ID:/crNRzOa マンザナー強制収容所の亡霊 :第2次大戦の日本人抑留者の遺体が米国で発見される ’The ghost of Manzanar’: Japanese WW2 internee’s body found in US・・・ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50993884
